I’m off on an adventure (preview here).
Melissa’s holding down the fort in San Jose — if you need to get word to me for some reason (like to give me that million dollars I’ve been patiently awaiting), you can drop her a line here.
I moved to California in 1999 with a small stake from the 401(k) at my previous job. I made just about every investing mistake on the map trying to protect that stake from the whims of Wall Street. When I finally realized I was in over my head, I parked it all in a half-dozen Vanguard mutual funds a couple years ago and let the market do its work.
The first thing I did was the worst: I put all the money into one Vanguard growth fund at one price. Which meant that not only was I hostage to whatever pain the market might inflict on that single fund, I was also hostage to a single price. As long the fund was over the $34 purchase price I was fine, but here’s the rub: In the eight years since the original transaction this fund still trades under $34.
I sold off a bunch of the fund in around 2001 or so to preserve capital. About a year later I decide that ol’ “diversify your risks” thing might be a good idea, so I divvied it up among four stock funds (a small-cap, a mid-cap, a mixed fund and the original growth fund) and two bond funds. I bought all these funds at incredible bargains because of the bear market, whose gyrations over the next couple years got me thinking I ought to try my hand at trading individual stocks, during which time I promptly squandered these bargains.
Trading stocks instructed me in a few things: 1) broker commissions are killers; and 2) it’s not for the impatient or cowardly. All I ever did was lose money.
One thing I learned from reading the blogs of active traders is that you have to have a) a system (and the discipline to stick to it): and b) an edge: something combination of insight and skill that keeps you on the profitable side of trades. If you have neither system and nor edge, you might as well toss your dollars to the breeze.
I got fed up with trading just before the bull run of 2004 that lasted up until a couple months ago. Instead of just pouring all my money back into my mutual funds at a single price, I set up an automatic investment that put bought the same dollar amount of stock each month from each fund. They call this dollar-cost averaging, and the advantage of it is obvious at times like now, when the market’s going crazy again: I buy more shares when prices are low, and fewer shares when prices are high, and I’m losing money only on the most recent purchases; all the others, bought when prices were lower, are safe (for now anyway).
In retrospect, of course, I would have made tons more money if I’d just poured all my cash back into those stock funds three years ago, but the trouble with the financial markets is it’s like trying to drive your car via the rear-view mirror. You can’t see what’s coming; all you have are the hints provided by where you’ve been.
Something else I learned: The surest way to improve your fund balance is to keep adding money to it. This is why I’ll always park at least a chunk of money in my two bond funds: they pay cash money, which gets invested in more shares of the funds. The more shares I own, the more the funds pay.
Bottom line is I can ride out the current mess without inducing an aneurysm, because I know the market won’t hit all my funds with the same force, and most of the risk is lies in the small number of shares I bought at the most recent prices; the rest are essentially safe (in the short run anyway; a protracted bear market could bite me in the fanny again, I suppose.)
When I got into the market like everybody else during the 401(k) boom of the ’90s, I had no concept of dealing with the risks. When the crash happened I had no concept of protecting my assets.
Live and learn, as they say. This spring my original 401(k) balance finally got back to where it was in 1999, and the market promptly nose-dived again. But at least my money’s spread around so I don’t have to repeat my previous errors. The fun part will be learning from the next ones (which the market will gladly provide).
This morning I realized that three of my former Mercury News colleagues are running copy desks at other papers, and they’re all advertising for openings on their desks:
I”m filing this under “good to know, just in case.”
I was in the seventh grade at a Boy Scouts gathering when Hank Aaron broke Babe Ruth’s record. I was at work when Barry Bonds hit 755 and 756 on Saturday and last night. No matter what you think of Barry, the talk of the drugs and all that, there’s something cool looking up at the TV and seeing the great record fall.
All I know about Barry Bonds is what other actual baseball fans have told me: he’s one of the most feared hitters in the history of the game. And as far as I know, there are no drugs for improving eyesight.
The playing-the-actual-game rap on Bonds was that he wasn’t a clutch hitter, that he’d come to the plate with men on base in big games and not come through with the big hits. Maybe he was a choker, or maybe he cared only about his place in the record books, but it occurred to me that he might simply have become too good for his own good. With the game on the line and no choice but to pitch to Bonds, no pitcher would dare risk throwing anything Bonds had a chance of blasting out of the park.
Imagine how much sooner Bonds would’ve broken this record if intentional walks were illegal.
Shakespeare would’ve had a ball with this story: a guy desperate to stake his place among the legends of his game makes an ethical compromise that gives him a shot at his place in history, but history judges him a cheater. He gets so good that nobody dares to compete with him. It’s not a game anymore, it’s just everybody going through the motions for several summers and hoping that as soon as he breaks his damn record, he’ll just go the hell away.
How’s that for cosmic justice?
He was playing a six-string acoustic bass guitar, and was rather good. I remember wondering why we hadn’t been told of this skill, considering all the attention that attended Bill Clinton’s saxophone playing.
He was unfailingly polite and charming, the kidder and prankster we’ve been told of. A little boy, a toddler of 2 or so, was nearby, and the president tossed a soccer ball his way. The ball hit the boy on the head, knocking him on his diapered butt. He started wailing.
Later I was bragging to somebody about going to the White House, but I didn’t mention the baby.